The verifier runs on every request, not just escalations.
cascade / mo
always-premium / mo
savings
break-even escalation

Where the cascade cost comes from

The cheap model and the verifier are paid on the full volume; the premium model is paid only on the escalated share. Always-premium and a plain traffic split are shown for comparison.

ComponentMonthly costShare

Savings across escalation rates

Escalation rate is the swing factor. This holds everything else fixed and steps it to show where the cascade stops beating always-premium — the break-even row is marked.

EscalationCascade / moSavingsVerdict

A cheap model first is not a cheap bill by default

The appeal of a cascade is obvious: most requests are easy, a small model gets them right, and paying premium prices for easy work is waste. Run the cheap model first, keep the answers that pass a check, and escalate only the ones that fail — the FrugalGPT result showed this can match a frontier model's quality at a fraction of the cost. The trap is treating the cheap model as the whole cost. You pay it on every request, whether the answer survives or not. You pay a verifier on every request too, because something has to decide what escalates, and that something is usually another model call. And on the share you escalate, you pay the premium model on top of the cheap attempt you already made. Add those up and the picture changes: the cascade saves handsomely when escalation is low, shrinks as escalation climbs, and past a break-even rate it costs more than just calling the premium model on everything — because you have paid the cheap model and verifier for nothing and still paid full premium price. This calculator prices all three legs from your own token counts and rates, compares the cascade to always-premium and to a plain traffic split that never double-pays, and marks the escalation rate where the arithmetic flips. If you route each request to a single model up front instead of escalating, price that with the model router calculator; to stack caching, batching and other levers on top, use the cost optimization calculator; and to compare the two models themselves, see the model comparison.

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Model RouterCost OptimizationSelf-ConsistencyModel Comparison